Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd6e…4509 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$32 (-2%) realized −$20 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$101
crypto 15% −$114
sports 4% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -6.8% -15.7% 42% 42% -12.0%
≤30d 12 -6.8% -15.7% 42% 42% -12.0%
≤90d 12 -6.8% -15.7% 42% 42% -12.0%
all 12 -6.8% -15.7% 42% 42% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 42% -12.0%
10% -23.7% 42% -20.4%
15% -31.1% 42% -28.1%
20% -37.9% 33% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$67 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$335
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage7d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$46 -89%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$27 -52%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$80 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $54 +$48 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$127 +249%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 16h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $24 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $281 39h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $175 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $22 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $54 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $213 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $334.77 · official $334.77 (match) · 32 history records