Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

FD 0xfd6f…964b other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$200 (-9%) realized −$200 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate66%19W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$75per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit34%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$10

7 days−$187

14 days−$195

30 days−$195

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-21.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-10.9%	-19.4%	67%	43%	-19.1%
≤30d	28	-10.3%	-18.8%	68%	46%	-17.7%
≤90d	28	-10.3%	-18.8%	68%	46%	-17.7%
all	29	-13.4%	-21.6%	66%	45%	-18.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-21.6%	45%	-18.1%
10%	-29.1%	21%	-25.9%
15%	-36.0%	10%	-33.1%
20%	-42.3%	7%	-39.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

32% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -11% → late -15% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$47 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.56 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$200

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)66%

Wins / losses19 / 10

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)29 / 29

History coverage132d

Avg bet$75

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 29 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$52	+$7	+13%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$82	−$29	-36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$75	+$7	+10%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$74	+$1	+2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$50	+$24	+48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$17	−$17	-100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 21	$51	−$35	-68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$162	−$111	-68%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$157	+$5	+3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5	Jun 20	$150	+$6	+4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$135	+$16	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$105	+$30	+29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$100	+$5	+5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$104	−$104	-100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$20	+$4	+18%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5	Jun 18	$86	+$15	+17%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$61	+$41	+67%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$41	+$24	+59%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$117	−$76	-65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$97	+$20	+21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$88	+$8	+10%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-92%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$70	+$16	+23%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$58	+$13	+23%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$48	+$10	+22%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$42	+$6	+14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$100	−$58	-58%
Will the US strike Iran next?	Feb 11	$12	−$12	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	88¢	$52	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	55¢	$53	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$82	7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$82	24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$75	25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$75	25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	98¢	$74	28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$74	31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$50	33h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$17	2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	10¢	$16	2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$51	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	23¢	$52	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$162	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$162	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	97¢	$157	2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	100¢	$156	3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	96¢	$150	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$152	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$135	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$136	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	77¢	$105	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$105	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	95¢	$100	4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	95¢	$104	5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$24	5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	84¢	$20	5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	100¢	$101	5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	85¢	$86	6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records