Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:32:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd71…011c
other · 39 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$295 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$217 · open +$342
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$1,106
Realized−$217
Unrealized+$342
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions12
Markets (closed)27 / 39
History coverage88d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 12 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Arda Güler: 3+ goals Yes 50¢ $20 $526 +$506 (+2532%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $150 $183 +$33 (+22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 54¢ $90 $84 −$6 (-6%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 11¢ $120 $1 −$119 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 22¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Yes 59¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 41¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 12¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 14¢ $190 $0 −$190 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$17 +272%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$122 +596%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$7 -64%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $195 −$190 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 +$65 +160%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +43%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $101 −$100 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 +$71 +70%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 30 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Deportivo Saprissa win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $101 +$82 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 14 $1 $0 +30%
Lakers vs. Magic May 14 $2 +$1 +61%
Lakers vs. Heat Mar 20 $1 +$2 +150%
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Warriors vs. Celtics Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $57 −$57 -100%
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $50 +$32 +64%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $30 +$146 +488%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 67% +$263
sports 23% −$117
crypto 6% −$7
politics 3% −$1
world 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $101 1h
Arda Güler: 3+ goals BUY Yes $21 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs $21 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $91 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $51 3h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 4h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 4h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 4h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 5h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 5h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 5h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 26h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 27h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 27h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $21 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $92 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $154 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ $101 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +57.0% +42.1% 40% 40% -19.6%
≤30d 14 +24.3% +12.5% 36% 36% -38.9%
≤90d 27 +19.1% +7.7% 41% 41% -26.0%
all 27 +19.1% +7.7% 41% 41% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.7% 41% -26.0%
10% -2.6% 41% -33.1%
15% -12.0% 37% -39.6%
20% -20.6% 33% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,106.03 · official $1,106.03 (match) · 155 history records