trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $21 | −$20 | -97% |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $6 | +$17 | +272% |
| Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $21 | +$122 | +596% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 13 | $10 | −$4 | -37% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET | Jun 13 | $10 | −$7 | -64% |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $195 | −$190 | -98% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $21 | −$20 | -97% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $41 | +$65 | +160% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $50 | +$22 | +43% |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 09 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | May 30 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $101 | +$71 | +70% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | May 30 | $30 | −$30 | -99% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $153 | −$150 | -98% |
| Will Deportivo Saprissa win on 2026-05-13? | May 14 | $101 | +$82 | +81% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | May 14 | $1 | $0 | +30% |
| Lakers vs. Magic | May 14 | $2 | +$1 | +61% |
| Lakers vs. Heat | Mar 20 | $1 | +$2 | +150% |
| Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026? | Mar 19 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? | Mar 19 | $80 | −$80 | -100% |
| Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? | Mar 19 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Celtics | Mar 19 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? | Mar 19 | $57 | −$57 | -100% |
| Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela | Mar 18 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? | Mar 18 | $50 | +$32 | +64% |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Mar 18 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? | Mar 17 | $30 | +$146 | +488% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | +57.0% | +42.1% | 40% | 40% | -19.6% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +24.3% | +12.5% | 36% | 36% | -38.9% |
| ≤90d | 27 | +19.1% | +7.7% | 41% | 41% | -26.0% |
| all | 27 | +19.1% | +7.7% | 41% | 41% | -26.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +7.7% | 41% | -26.0% |
| 10% | -2.6% | 41% | -33.1% |
| 15% | -12.0% | 37% | -39.6% |
| 20% | -20.6% | 33% | -45.5% |