Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfd71…d70d world 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,524 (+7%) realized +$5,423 · open +$101
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%43W / 23L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$1,114per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3,422now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$404
7 days−$49
14 days+$766
30 days+$1,765
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$3,007
finance 10% +$1,601
sports 7% +$573
politics 5% +$1,060
other 3% +$241
crypto 1% −$1,089
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 50% -11.7%
≤30d 15 +17.7% +6.5% 80% 73% +4.8%
≤90d 56 +9.0% -1.4% 70% 61% -0.7%
all 66 +3.2% -6.7% 65% 55% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 55% -2.9%
10% -15.6% 29% -12.2%
15% -23.8% 20% -20.7%
20% -31.2% 5% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,395) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$262 vs −$260 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$3,422
Realized+$5,423
Unrealized+$101
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses43 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage108d
Avg bet$1,114
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 78¢ $2,540 $2,480 −$60 (-2%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 94¢ $781 $942 +$161 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 18 $1,059 +$404 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,000 −$453 -45%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $549 +$232 +42%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $80 +$51 +63%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $310 +$101 +33%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 05 $1,000 +$186 +19%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 05 $1,200 +$194 +16%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 05 $1,080 +$52 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1,500 +$528 +35%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 24 $833 +$393 +47%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 24 $508 +$237 +47%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $500 −$172 -34%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 24 $508 +$276 +54%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 19 $520 +$237 +46%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $1,000 +$433 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 06 $1,500 −$58 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $660 +$93 +14%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 05 $1,000 −$150 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 01 $1,000 +$121 +12%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? May 01 $2,000 +$241 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $1,000 +$183 +18%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $820 −$223 -27%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $1,500 −$110 -7%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 24 $500 +$200 +40%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Apr 23 $500 +$16 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 23 $502 +$86 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $1,000 +$427 +43%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 21 $744 −$245 -33%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $500 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $500 −$307 -61%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $2,200 −$1,346 -61%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 15 $1,000 +$29 +3%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $520 $0 -0%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026 Apr 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $2,000 +$420 +21%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 12 $1,000 +$277 +28%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 11 $200 +$105 +52%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Apr 10 $177 −$19 -11%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? Apr 09 $546 +$183 +34%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 08 $2,000 −$342 -17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Apr 08 $1,000 +$201 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 08 $3,564 +$666 +19%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026? Apr 06 $1,461 +$106 +7%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 06 $2,678 −$355 -13%
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? Apr 06 $1,100 +$140 +13%
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? Apr 05 $500 +$161 +32%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 05 $500 +$119 +24%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $985 +$197 +20%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 28, 202 Apr 03 $1,000 +$184 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $1,463 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $540 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $547 4d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $781 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 100¢ $781 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 70¢ $549 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 96¢ $131 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 97¢ $411 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 59¢ $70 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 73¢ $310 10d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $1,186 12d
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? SELL No 93¢ $1,394 12d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? SELL No 94¢ $1,132 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1,000 15d
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? BUY No 80¢ $474 15d
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? BUY No 80¢ $8 15d
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? BUY No 80¢ $12 15d
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? BUY No 80¢ $100 15d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? BUY No 90¢ $240 15d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? BUY No 90¢ $3 16d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? BUY No 90¢ $6 16d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? BUY No 90¢ $6 16d
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? BUY No 80¢ $367 16d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $383 16d
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? BUY No 80¢ $10 16d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $0 16d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $38 16d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $3 16d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $7 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,421.89 · official $3,421.89 (match) · 306 history records