Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd71…722e crypto 1615 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,468 (-10%) realized −$333 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate73%1171W / 444L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day134.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$109
14 days−$327
30 days−$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$298
other 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (134 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 455 -9.5% -18.1% 72% 31% -12.6%
≤30d 1615 -3.1% -12.3% 73% 38% -11.5%
≤90d 1615 -3.1% -12.3% 73% 38% -11.5%
all 1615 -3.1% -12.3% 73% 38% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 38% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 6% -20.0%
15% -28.4% 3% -27.7%
20% -35.4% 2% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$333
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses1171 / 444
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1615 / 1615
History coverage22d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day134.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1615 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 79¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$7 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$5 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records