Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:36:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd75…fce3
crypto · 1696 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$62 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses1147 / 547
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1694 / 1696
History coverage142d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 1694 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 91¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 95¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 94¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 95¢ 79¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$66
other 1% +$10
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -3.2% -12.4% 63% 26% -7.8%
≤30d 68 -3.7% -12.9% 72% 35% -10.8%
≤90d 1516 -1.4% -10.8% 68% 64% -10.3%
all 1694 -1.5% -10.9% 68% 63% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 63% -10.6%
10% -19.4% 50% -19.1%
15% -27.2% 38% -27.0%
20% -34.3% 24% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.11 · official $9.11 (match) · 3312 history records