Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd7c…0918 crypto 184 markets active 0h ago coverage 1012d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$78 (-1%) realized −$76 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate41%75W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$80
14 days−$98
30 days−$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$88
sports 17% −$526
world 13% +$350
other 6% −$93
weather 0% −$7
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -19.7% -27.4% 46% 23% -25.4%
≤30d 160 -9.2% -17.8% 42% 26% -12.9%
≤90d 162 -9.8% -18.4% 41% 26% -18.1%
all 182 +1.6% -8.1% 41% 27% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 27% -11.7%
10% -16.9% 23% -20.2%
15% -24.9% 19% -27.9%
20% -32.3% 15% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1012d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses75 / 107
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)182 / 184
History coverage1012d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $24 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $297 −$76 -26%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $1 $0 +22%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1 $0 +18%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 -2%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 $0 -2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +10%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 +$1 +46%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 20¢ $25 19m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 51¢ $67 19m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 73¢ $67 55m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 94¢ $89 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 73¢ $38 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 75¢ $41 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 71¢ $41 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 84¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 79¢ $1 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $1 8h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 12h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 27h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 27h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 27h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 27h
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY No 30¢ $1 28h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 28h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 39h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.31 · official $1.32 (match) · 450 history records