Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:02:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FD 0xfd7f…298d crypto 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%76W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$4
14 days−$126
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$125
sports 33% −$21
other 24% −$10
world 6% −$10
politics 1% −$3
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +2.2% -7.6% 28% 28% -10.3%
≤30d 201 -1.7% -11.1% 38% 36% -13.1%
≤90d 201 -1.7% -11.1% 38% 36% -13.1%
all 201 -1.7% -11.1% 38% 36% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 36% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 31% -21.5%
15% -27.3% 24% -29.0%
20% -34.5% 20% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses76 / 125
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)201 / 202
History coverage24d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$7 +265%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +80%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $41 −$3 -6%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $48 −$2 -5%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $42 −$1 -3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$10 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$11 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$8 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$11 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $27 +$36 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $60 −$22 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$23 +148%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$11 +67%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $2 +$2 +88%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +19%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $2 +$2 +98%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $11 −$3 -24%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch Jun 11 $15 −$1 -8%
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Nada Fouad Jun 11 $2 $0 -15%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $6 $0 -5%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 10 $6 $0 -3%
ITF Vaasa: Jules Leroux vs Leonardo Rossi Jun 10 $4 $0 -5%
Ilkley: Iryna Shymanovich vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 10 $4 $0 -5%
Bratislava: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Emilio Nava Jun 09 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 09 $18 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 08 $25 −$13 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 07 $13 +$12 +89%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $25 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 07 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 06 $38 +$42 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$3 -52%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $347 −$18 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 06 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 05 $12 +$10 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 05 $25 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 05 $16 +$16 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 05 $16 +$14 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 05 $9 +$8 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $9 −$9 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $28 −$9 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 05 $15 −$14 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 99¢ $9 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $3 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 3h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 41¢ $4 18h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $4 18h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 73¢ $4 18h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $4 18h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 41¢ $4 18h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 74¢ $4 18h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $4 18h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $4 18h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $4 18h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 41¢ $4 18h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 73¢ $4 18h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $4 18h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 41¢ $4 18h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 74¢ $4 18h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $4 18h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $4 18h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $8 19h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 41¢ $8 19h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 73¢ $8 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $8 19h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $4 19h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 74¢ $4 19h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 41¢ $4 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $4 19h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 74¢ $4 19h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 41¢ $4 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.11 · official $24.02 (match) · 927 history records