Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:25:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd80…4d77
crypto · 24 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day110.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 24 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $7 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -15.5% -23.6% 67% 42% -19.4%
≤30d 24 -15.5% -23.6% 67% 42% -19.4%
≤90d 24 -15.5% -23.6% 67% 42% -19.4%
all 24 -15.5% -23.6% 67% 42% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover110.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 42% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 4% -27.1%
15% -37.6% 0% -34.1%
20% -43.7% 0% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records