Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd82…6a10 sports 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$366 (-6%) realized −$314 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate59%62W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$355
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 50% -14.8%
≤30d 105 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 50% -14.8%
≤90d 105 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 50% -14.8%
all 105 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 50% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 50% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 34% -22.9%
15% -26.3% 26% -30.4%
20% -33.5% 19% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$38 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$517
Realized−$314
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses62 / 43
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions11
Markets (closed)105 / 116
History coverage4d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Darja Vidmanova Darja Vidmanova 56¢ 88¢ $50 $79 +$29 (+58%)
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Xiyu Wang 69¢ 78¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Sofia Johnson Oleksandra Oliynykova 71¢ 80¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birrell Kimberly Birrell 91¢ 95¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus Paula Badosa 78¢ 80¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Cerundolo 62¢ 63¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Clutchain 60¢ 57¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Set Handicap: Sierra (-1.5) vs Seidel (+1.5) Seidel 60¢ 46¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
ITF Ystad: Madison Sieg vs Lucie Petruzelova Lucie Petruzelova 18¢ 30¢ $23 $38 +$15 (+64%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 35¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) Grind Back 56¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Arribage/Olivetti Jun 20 $51 +$15 +29%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Ziga Sesko Jun 20 $50 +$10 +20%
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Chenting Zhu Jun 20 $51 +$28 +55%
Set Handicap: Khomutsianskaya (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) Jun 20 $51 +$30 +60%
ITF Irvine: Bryce Nakashima vs Ronit Karki Jun 20 $51 +$35 +69%
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Christian Langmo Jun 19 $50 +$21 +42%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $102 +$98 +97%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$45 +90%
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 19 $51 −$1 -2%
ITF Milano: Georgii Kravchenko vs Giuseppe La Vela Jun 19 $50 +$21 +42%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $101 −$18 -18%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$26 +52%
ITF Lourinha: Oscar Andres Martinez De Freitas vs Pablo Martinez Gomez Jun 19 $50 +$12 +24%
ITF Ystad: Ida Wobker vs Thea Frodin Jun 19 $6 +$1 +16%
ITF Ystad: Lea Nilsson vs Linea Bajraliu Jun 19 $3 +$1 +26%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 19 $50 +$11 +21%
Valentina Ivanov vs. Madison Sieg: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 +$24 +48%
Set Handicap: Frodin (-1.5) vs Wobker (+1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Adrien Burdet Jun 19 $50 +$7 +14%
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Ipek Oz Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Samobor: Nikita Mashtakov vs Nicolas Jadoun Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
Set Handicap: Sobolieva (-1.5) vs Olmo (+1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Chenting Zhu Jun 19 $51 +$42 +83%
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Sorger Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Set Handicap: Wolf (-1.5) vs Langmo (+1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Kayo Nishimura Jun 19 $51 +$26 +52%
ITF Saarlouis: Pieter De Lange vs Nikolai Barsukov Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
Set Handicap: Rincon (-1.5) vs Gadamauri (+1.5) Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $50 +$23 +46%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $51 +$26 +52%
ITF Tulsa: Maximus Dussault vs Ozan Baris Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Yushan Shao Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Weronika Ewald Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Bolszewo: Nika Hurkacz vs Victoria Bosio Jun 18 $50 +$10 +20%
ITF Mohammedia: Aran Teixido Garcia vs Daria Egorova Jun 18 $51 +$45 +90%
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Milano: Stefano D'agostino vs Georgii Kravchenko Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
Linda Noskova vs. Diane Parry: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$28 +55%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $51 +$33 +65%
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 60¢ $51 22m
ITF Ystad: Madison Sieg vs Lucie Petruzelova BUY Lucie Petruzelova 18¢ $24 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY Grind Back 35¢ $51 3h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Cerundolo 62¢ $51 4h
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Arribage/Olivetti BUY Galloway/Peers 38¢ $51 4h
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) BUY Grind Back 56¢ $51 5h
Set Handicap: Khomutsianskaya (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) BUY Wang 62¢ $51 9h
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Chenting Zhu BUY Evialina Laskevich 64¢ $51 9h
ITF Irvine: Bryce Nakashima vs Ronit Karki BUY Bryce Nakashima 59¢ $51 9h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Sofia J BUY Oleksandra Oliynykova 71¢ $50 11h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre BUY Kimberly Birrell 91¢ $50 11h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus BUY Paula Badosa 78¢ $50 11h
Set Handicap: Sierra (-1.5) vs Seidel (+1.5) BUY Seidel 60¢ $51 11h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Ziga Sesko BUY Alex Molcan 83¢ $50 11h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Xiyu Wang 69¢ $50 16h
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) BUY PlayTime 51¢ $51 16h
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Darja Vidmanova BUY Darja Vidmanova 56¢ $51 18h
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 52¢ $51 19h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Zverev 60¢ $51 21h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 50¢ $51 21h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) BUY Sabalenka 71¢ $50 21h
ITF Milano: Georgii Kravchenko vs Giuseppe La Vela BUY Georgii Kravchenko 70¢ $50 22h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Collignon 41¢ $51 22h
Set Handicap: Frodin (-1.5) vs Wobker (+1.5) BUY Frodin 64¢ $51 24h
ITF Ystad: Ida Wobker vs Thea Frodin BUY Thea Frodin 86¢ $6 24h
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Ipek Oz BUY Ipek Oz 62¢ $51 24h
ITF Ystad: Lea Nilsson vs Linea Bajraliu BUY Lea Nilsson 79¢ $3 25h
ITF Lourinha: Oscar Andres Martinez De Freitas vs Pablo Martinez Gomez BUY Pablo Martinez Gomez 80¢ $50 25h
Valentina Ivanov vs. Madison Sieg: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 67¢ $50 25h
Set Handicap: Sobolieva (-1.5) vs Olmo (+1.5) BUY Olmo 51¢ $51 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $516.59 · official $517.14 (match) · 192 history records