Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd8a…f8e2
sports · 503 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$245 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$231 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$466
Realized−$231
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses241 / 197
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions65
Markets (closed)438 / 503
History coverage45d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day45.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 65 History 438 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$6
14 days−$144
30 days−$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 83¢ 99¢ $89 $107 +$18 (+20%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 52¢ 55¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 90¢ 85¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 90¢ 98¢ $30 $32 +$3 (+9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+5%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 80¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+11%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 85¢ 100¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+17%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 93¢ 98¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 24¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+71%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 76¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 54¢ 48¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-11%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 29¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-6%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 70¢ 79¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+13%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 80¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+118%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 98¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 48¢ 78¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+62%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 76¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 87¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 71¢ 88¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 31¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-51%)
Birmingham: James Duckworth vs Billy Harris Billy Harris 37¢ 50¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 68¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 91¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $27 +$1 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $9 +$13 +143%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $76 −$9 -12%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $5 +$2 +35%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +37%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $70 −$27 -39%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $14 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $54 −$10 -18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +88%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $52 −$3 -5%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $6 +$2 +42%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $26 +$23 +91%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $33 −$15 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $19 −$19 -99%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$4 +84%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +39%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $8 +$17 +210%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$3 +37%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $4 $0 +11%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $4 +$6 +140%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $16 −$5 -32%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2 $0 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $19 −$19 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $17 +$8 +46%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $23 −$23 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $18 +$10 +55%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $26 −$1 -2%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $15 +$21 +139%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $6 +$11 +175%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $3 +$1 +21%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $22 −$12 -53%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $7 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $37 −$37 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 49% −$85
other 33% −$159
world 11% −$19
finance 5% +$21
tech 2% $0
politics 1% −$1
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 71¢ $1 38m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 71¢ $1 38m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 72¢ $2 38m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 72¢ $2 38m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 69¢ $2 42m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 70¢ $2 42m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 68¢ $1 43m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 67¢ $1 44m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 52¢ $2 52m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 52¢ $2 55m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 52¢ $4 55m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 50¢ $5 55m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 51¢ $1 56m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 52¢ $4 56m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 52¢ $4 56m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 49¢ $4 57m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 50¢ $4 57m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 51¢ $4 57m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 50¢ $2 57m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 47¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 48¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 47¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 45¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 46¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 46¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 46¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 45¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 44¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +1.9% -7.8% 64% 50% -11.0%
≤30d 299 -9.0% -17.6% 56% 46% -16.4%
≤90d 438 -10.2% -18.8% 55% 44% -14.7%
all 438 -10.2% -18.8% 55% 44% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover45.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 44% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 35% -22.9%
15% -33.7% 29% -30.3%
20% -40.2% 22% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $465.79 · official $460.94 · 2174 history records