Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FD 0xfd8d…038b weather 1074 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5,567 (+7%) realized +$5,502 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate84%892W / 167L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day56.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,422now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% +$1,237
crypto 24% −$151
other 3% −$215
culture 0% −$57
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 +6.0% -4.1% 81% 17% -5.1%
≤30d 495 +2.8% -7.0% 85% 21% -9.8%
≤90d 1059 -0.1% -9.6% 84% 20% -8.7%
all 1059 -0.1% -9.6% 84% 20% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 20% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 11% -17.4%
15% -26.1% 6% -25.4%
20% -33.4% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$26 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$2,422
Realized+$5,502
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses892 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1059 / 1074
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$73
Trades / day56.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 1059 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No 93¢ 94¢ $371 $378 +$7 (+2%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 80¢ 84¢ $321 $338 +$17 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? No 96¢ 99¢ $313 $322 +$9 (+3%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 69¢ 73¢ $299 $318 +$19 (+6%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No 90¢ 94¢ $269 $280 +$12 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? No 75¢ 74¢ $171 $171 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? No 92¢ 92¢ $146 $145 −$1 (-1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $127 $136 +$9 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $740b and $760b on June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $93 $94 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $87 $87 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $70 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $53 $54 +$2 (+3%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $9 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$50 +945%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$24 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$50 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $42 +$8 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $149 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $85 +$22 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$23 +321%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$18 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $73 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$25 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 13 $111 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$64 +404%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $42 +$149 +354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $108 −$102 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $98 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 1h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 10¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,421.87 · official $2,421.87 (match) · 3500 history records