Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd8e…aea4
weather · 463 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$105 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$109 · open −$56
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,377
Realized+$109
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses215 / 169
Open positions79
Markets (closed)384 / 463
History coverage7d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day483.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 79 History 384 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$109
14 days+$109
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on June 12? No 82¢ 100¢ $123 $150 +$27 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 82¢ 92¢ $82 $92 +$10 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 12? No 82¢ 100¢ $74 $90 +$16 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? No 80¢ 78¢ $72 $70 −$3 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 82¢ 86¢ $66 $69 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 82¢ 90¢ $57 $63 +$5 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? No 82¢ 87¢ $57 $61 +$4 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? No 77¢ 86¢ $54 $60 +$6 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? No 78¢ 86¢ $55 $60 +$5 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? No 82¢ 86¢ $57 $60 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? No 82¢ 84¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 82¢ 74¢ $66 $59 −$7 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? No 82¢ 83¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? No 81¢ 82¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? No 82¢ 82¢ $57 $58 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 82¢ 81¢ $57 $57 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 13? No 82¢ 78¢ $56 $53 −$3 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? No 72¢ 72¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? No 82¢ 72¢ $57 $51 −$7 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? No 82¢ 72¢ $57 $51 −$7 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? No 82¢ 72¢ $57 $50 −$7 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? No 82¢ 72¢ $58 $50 −$7 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 82¢ 72¢ $57 $50 −$7 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 79¢ 76¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 82¢ 72¢ $53 $47 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $46 −$10 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $64 −$17 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $53 +$9 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $57 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $46 +$9 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $57 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $66 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $65 −$9 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$5 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $66 −$6 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $74 +$16 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $54 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $57 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $55 +$12 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $66 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $11 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $90 +$20 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$5 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $37 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $54 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $90 +$20 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 12 $66 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $38 −$10 -26%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 12 $57 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 12 $57 +$9 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $65 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $66 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $65 −$9 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $56 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 11? Jun 12 $74 +$16 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $84 +$18 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $55 +$8 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$23 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $57 +$10 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $10 3m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 77¢ $31 9m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $5 9m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $49 9m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $29 15m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $6 23m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $7 23m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 65¢ $2 23m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $7 25m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $31 28m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 74¢ $4 31m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 74¢ $4 31m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $26 32m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 96¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $4 32m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 81¢ $8 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $7 35m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 57¢ $6 35m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 57¢ $3 35m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 81¢ $8 35m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 81¢ $8 35m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $11 35m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 57¢ $6 37m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 57¢ $6 37m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 56¢ $5 37m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 56¢ $5 37m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 82¢ $8 37m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 82¢ $8 37m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 82¢ $8 37m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 82¢ $8 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 384 +21.2% +9.7% 56% 34% -8.7%
≤30d 384 +21.2% +9.7% 56% 34% -8.7%
≤90d 384 +21.2% +9.7% 56% 34% -8.7%
all 384 +21.2% +9.7% 56% 34% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover483.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.7% 34% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -0.8% 4% -17.5%
15% -10.4% 2% -25.5%
20% -19.2% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,377.00 · official $2,363.40 (match) · 3500 history records