Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:25:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd8f…92ba world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%31W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$8
politics 18% $0
other 17% −$4
sports 11% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% +$3
tech 1% $0
weather 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 30% 10% -8.6%
≤30d 29 -0.7% -10.1% 41% 3% -9.1%
≤90d 72 -0.8% -10.2% 36% 3% -9.3%
all 81 -1.7% -11.1% 38% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses31 / 50
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)81 / 84
History coverage530d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 96¢ 93¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 -13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $32 +$5 +17%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $90 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $80 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $95 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -17%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $135 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $24 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $84 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $84 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $79 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $94 +$3 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $11 $0 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $75 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $48 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $104 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $2 $0 -17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $8 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $34 $0 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $31 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $31 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $65 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $62 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $49 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $50 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $28 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $21 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 18h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 18h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $40 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $47 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $4 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $51 46h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $20 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 15¢ $11 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $40 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $40 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.76 · official $0.07 (match) · 352 history records