Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:01:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FD 0xfd91…b49a sports 585 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$61 (+1%) realized +$63 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%294W / 289L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$63
14 days−$69
30 days−$843
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$132
crypto 32% +$116
other 13% −$79
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -10.0% -18.6% 36% 11% -14.4%
≤30d 513 -13.1% -21.3% 45% 40% -18.6%
≤90d 583 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 46% -10.2%
all 583 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 46% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 46% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 42% -18.8%
15% -29.4% 37% -26.7%
20% -36.3% 32% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses294 / 289
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions2
Markets (closed)583 / 585
History coverage41d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 583 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 54¢ 51¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 46¢ 38¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 $0 +1%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 $0 -2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $72 −$16 -22%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$2 -6%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$3 +178%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +15%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7 +$1 +16%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 −$15 -69%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 −$3 -7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $49 $0 -0%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $8 $0 -2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $17 $0 -1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$1 -31%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 $0 -1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 −$4 -9%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 −$3 -5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 −$5 -10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $16 +$2 +15%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 $0 -1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$3 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $46 +$1 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $7 −$1 -8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$4 -39%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 $0 -5%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 -12%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $26 $0 -1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -2%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $24 −$2 -7%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$13 -25%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $17 −$1 -3%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $3 +$2 +73%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $3 −$1 -23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $23 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $48 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $48 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 83¢ $20 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $21 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $43 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 80¢ $14 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $14 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 81¢ $21 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $22 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 90¢ $20 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 90¢ $1 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $24 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $9 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $9 5h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 32¢ $0 17h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 35¢ $2 17h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 99¢ $15 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 65¢ $5 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $7 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 70¢ $0 21h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 62¢ $0 21h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 61¢ $5 21h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 60¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.80 · official $18.01 (match) · 1836 history records