Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd96…e623 sports 327 markets active 4h ago coverage 120d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$56,347 (+15%) realized +$56,347 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%204W / 326L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,182per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Fees−$1,985est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 120d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$64,158
world 0% +$2
politics 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 223 -84.3% -85.8% 8% 7% -21.8%
≤30d 243 -76.5% -78.7% 13% 11% -18.9%
≤90d 392 -42.6% -48.1% 34% 27% -16.0%
all 530 -34.0% -40.3% 38% 31% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.3% 31% -14.4%
10% -46.0% 26% -22.6%
15% ← realistic here -51.2% 19% -30.1%
20% -56.0% 13% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$940) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$605 vs −$458 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$56,347
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses204 / 326
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,985
Open positions0
Markets (closed)530 / 327
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$1,182
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 530 Trades
no open positions (277 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) Jun 20 $242 −$242 -100%
Will Nike say "Express Lane" during earnings call? Jun 20 $73 −$73 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jun 20 $1,547 −$1,547 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 15+ times during the Fighting Oligarch Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) Jun 20 $377 −$377 -100%
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 20 $1,526 −$1,526 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine Pres Jun 20 $612 −$599 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Kathy Hochul say "Trump" 3+ times during the State of the State a Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO3) Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Passion UA (BO3) Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid (BO3) Jun 20 $4,772 −$4,696 -98%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2025-12-30? Jun 20 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Benin vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02? Jun 20 $93 −$93 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Jun 20 $336 −$336 -100%
Memphis Tigers vs. Rice Owls Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jun 20 $3,118 −$3,118 -100%
Will Nike say "Nike Factory" during earnings call? Jun 20 $122 −$122 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $388 −$388 -100%
Will Chewy say "Supplement" during earnings call? Jun 20 $16 −$11 -71%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $153 −$153 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $353 −$353 -100%
Will Sam Altman be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $151 −$151 -100%
Will NEOM SC vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club end in a draw? Jun 20 $679 −$679 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Jun 20 $288 −$288 -100%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs DRX (BO3) Jun 20 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Chewy say "Humanization" during earnings call? Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2025-12-16? Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Team Falcons (BO1) Jun 20 $111 −$113 -102%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Jun 20 $2,415 −$2,415 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs paiN (BO3) Jun 20 $1,468 −$1,468 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 20 $1,193 −$1,193 -100%
Will Costco say "Dividend" during earnings call? Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $449 −$449 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Fulham vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Jun 20 $26 −$24 -93%
Will JD Vance say "Inflation" at AmericaFest events on December 21? Jun 20 $83 −$83 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Nike say "Amazon" during earnings call? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Jun 20 $96 −$96 -100%
LoL: Ground Zero Gaming vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $135 −$135 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $913 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $703 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $75 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $12 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $78 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $281 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $12 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $16 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $64 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $830 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $128 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $1,194 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $61 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $51 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $51 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $63 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $2,632 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $15 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $118 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records