Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:18:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd9a…9e7f
crypto · 15 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$7 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage9d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +156%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 37% +$3
crypto 36% −$3
other 27% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $16 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 4h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $11 14h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 40h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 66¢ $11 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +8.1% -2.2% 75% 75% -15.3%
≤30d 14 +2.2% -7.6% 71% 71% -20.7%
≤90d 14 +2.2% -7.6% 71% 71% -20.7%
all 14 +2.2% -7.6% 71% 71% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 71% -20.7%
10% -16.4% 36% -28.3%
15% -24.5% 29% -35.2%
20% -31.9% 14% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.87 · official $17.87 (match) · 30 history records