Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:20:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfd9b…09e8 crypto 1483 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,336 (+11%) realized +$2,336 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%784W / 653L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day43.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$198
14 days+$614
30 days+$1,088
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,518
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +20.6% +9.1% 60% 60% +8.4%
≤30d 592 +14.3% +3.4% 59% 59% +3.5%
≤90d 1437 +10.5% -0.1% 55% 54% -3.0%
all 1437 +10.5% -0.1% 55% 54% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.1% 54% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -9.6% 54% -12.3%
15% -18.3% 54% -20.8%
20% -26.4% 54% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,336
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses784 / 653
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1437 / 1483
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day43.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1437 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $13 +$13 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$11 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 28 $14 +$12 +80%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$11 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$16 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $13 +$13 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$13 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$11 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 27 $13 +$13 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$11 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $12 −$12 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $8 +$17 +225%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$11 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$11 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$13 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$16 +150%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$11 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $14 −$13 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$13 +99%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $13 +$13 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $14 +$12 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $14 +$12 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$11 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $13 +$13 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$11 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$11 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$13 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$17 +193%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$18 +231%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$13 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $13 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $14 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $14 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $14 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $11 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $13 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $0 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records