Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:31:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FD 0xfd9b…638c sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$8
other 30% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -41.5% -47.1% 25% 25% -7.6%
≤30d 4 -41.5% -47.1% 25% 25% -7.6%
≤90d 4 -41.5% -47.1% 25% 25% -7.6%
all 4 -41.5% -47.1% 25% 25% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.1% 25% -7.6%
10% -52.1% 25% -16.5%
15% -56.8% 25% -24.5%
20% -61.0% 25% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$67 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $77 $78 +$1 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $155 +$208 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $78 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $76 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $101 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $155 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.10 · official $157.10 (match) · 8 history records