Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd9c…88e6 politics 191 markets active 1d ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-1%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%37W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$33
14 days−$36
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$5
other 25% −$19
sports 12% −$15
crypto 6% −$2
world 5% −$17
economics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -2.1% -11.4% 0% 0% -12.1%
≤30d 92 -1.2% -10.6% 2% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 171 -1.5% -10.9% 14% 0% -11.0%
all 186 -1.3% -10.7% 20% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -11.0%
10% -19.3% 0% -19.5%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.3%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses37 / 149
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)186 / 191
History coverage100d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $76 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $24 $0 -1%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $78 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 12 $67 −$17 -25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $40 −$6 -15%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 11 $25 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $11 $0 -3%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? Jun 11 $34 −$6 -17%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Jun 11 $6 $0 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 10 $35 $0 -1%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 09 $21 $0 -1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 07 $28 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $7 35h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 35h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 36h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 37h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 37h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 39h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 40h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $6 41h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $6 42h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $7 44h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $6 45h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $7 47h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 47h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 2d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 76¢ $10 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 2d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $6 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $6 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.05 · official $35.05 (match) · 1077 history records