Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:41:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd9c…f0c8 weather 876 markets active 1h ago coverage 558d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$11,881 (+16%) realized +$11,894 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%305W / 543L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$77
14 days+$110
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% +$17,461
other 19% −$2,457
sports 15% −$2,567
world 4% −$466
crypto 3% +$226
weather 1% +$90
tech 1% −$19
culture 1% −$242
economics 0% −$149
finance 0% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 +19.5% +8.1% 29% 27% -0.7%
≤30d 429 +10.6% +0.1% 31% 28% +3.1%
≤90d 455 +10.1% -0.4% 32% 29% -2.8%
all 848 +0.0% -9.5% 36% 32% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 32% +4.4%
10% -18.2% 29% -5.6%
15% -26.1% 26% -14.7%
20% -33.3% 21% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$36 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

558d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$11,894
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses305 / 543
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions34
Markets (closed)848 / 876
History coverage558d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 848 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Yes 22¢ 33¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Yes 25¢ 54¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+114%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 46¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 27¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-57%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? Yes 24¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 242 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yoshihiko Noda be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Taro Kono be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Takayuki Kobayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will elections be called before a new Prime Minister is appointed? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Yōko Kamikawa be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or below on Nove Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no new Prime Minister of Japan? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on No Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$8 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +328%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +236%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$14 +456%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +297%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +192%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$8 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$13 +322%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -53%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -66%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.38 · official $36.38 (match) · 2580 history records