Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd9f…2e16 crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-6%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$1
politics 20% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +10.8% +0.2% 71% 43% -19.6%
≤30d 7 +10.8% +0.2% 71% 43% -19.6%
≤90d 7 +10.8% +0.2% 71% 43% -19.6%
all 7 +10.8% +0.2% 71% 43% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 43% -19.6%
10% -9.4% 43% -27.3%
15% -18.1% 43% -34.3%
20% -26.2% 14% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.88 · official $2.88 (match) · 21 history records