Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:06:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfda0…43cf
sports · 913 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$11 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses462 / 451
Open positions0
Markets (closed)913 / 913
History coverage581d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 0 History 913 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 09 $2 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 09 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 01 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 01 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 01 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 01 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 01 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 01 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 01 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 01 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 01 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 01 $4 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 01 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 01 $4 +$6 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 58% −$49
sports 41% +$50
other 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -5.0% -14.0% 49% 46% -19.7%
≤30d 35 -5.0% -14.0% 49% 46% -19.7%
≤90d 37 -1.1% -10.5% 51% 49% -14.3%
all 913 -0.3% -9.8% 51% 44% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 44% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 39% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 35% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 32% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2327 history records