Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:38:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfda3…e4f5 crypto 132 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3054 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$792 (+4%) realized +$794 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +127% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +75% what you keep after slip
Net edge+75%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate53%77W / 68L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day3054.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3054 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+105.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 +126.8% +105.2% 53% 17% -9.4%
≤30d 145 +126.8% +105.2% 53% 17% -9.4%
≤90d 145 +126.8% +105.2% 53% 17% -9.4%
all 145 +126.8% +105.2% 53% 17% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3054.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +105.2% 17% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here +85.5% 12% -18.1%
15% +67.6% 11% -26.0%
20% +51.2% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +127% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +217% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
23.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$794
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses77 / 68
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 132
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$154
Trades / day3054.0
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 91¢ 72¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$15 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$6 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$34 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +600%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$35 +3128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$23 +83543%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$14 +3331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$14 +616%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$25 +30204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$22 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$5 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$22 +870%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$26 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $132 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $134 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $285 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $172 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $114 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $194 +$50 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $227 +$28 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $133 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $91 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $177 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $183 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $251 −$20 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $262 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $255 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $385 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $212 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $374 −$24 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $346 −$14 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $385 +$50 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $187 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $322 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $234 −$12 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $305 −$35 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $514 −$6 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $489 −$22 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $162 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $374 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $109 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $304 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $157 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $347 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $155 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $408 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $9 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 6m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.96 · official $7.20 (match) · 3500 history records