Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfda4…2b37 crypto 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%46W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day42.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$396now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$18
crypto 46% −$94
sports 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -7.8% -16.6% 50% 48% -13.4%
≤30d 92 -7.8% -16.6% 50% 48% -13.4%
≤90d 92 -7.8% -16.6% 50% 48% -13.4%
all 92 -7.8% -16.6% 50% 48% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 48% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 45% -21.7%
15% -31.8% 40% -29.3%
20% -38.5% 30% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$396
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses46 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)92 / 100
History coverage4d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day42.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 63¢ $75 $82 +$7 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 84¢ 83¢ $64 $63 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$8 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$10 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $27 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$9 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 25 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$7 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$8 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$14 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$3 -38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $119 +$26 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$12 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$5 -35%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $16 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$10 -83%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $75 +$24 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $27 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 +$9 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$77 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$15 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$14 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $14 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$6 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $48 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $64 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $25 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $67 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $396.15 · official $396.30 (match) · 231 history records