Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfda7…d488 sports 236 markets active 10h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$189 (-8%) realized −$186 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate60%125W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$437now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$108
14 days−$87
30 days−$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$118
other 28% −$57
politics 2% +$2
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -4.4% -13.5% 55% 50% -24.7%
≤30d 210 +0.2% -9.3% 60% 49% -17.9%
≤90d 210 +0.2% -9.3% 60% 49% -17.9%
all 210 +0.2% -9.3% 60% 49% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 49% -17.9%
10% -18.0% 43% -25.7%
15% -25.9% 35% -32.9%
20% -33.2% 28% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$437
Realized−$186
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses125 / 85
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions15
Markets (closed)210 / 236
History coverage25d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 88¢ $222 $218 −$4 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 91¢ $21 $27 +$6 (+28%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 47¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-29%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-18%)
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? No 93¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+39%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 61¢ 60¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 62¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$3 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $36 +$9 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $106 +$10 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 −$55 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 $0 -1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 +$2 +34%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Sweden Jun 15 $6 +$11 +174%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spre Jun 15 $6 +$5 +76%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 +$5 +58%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 +$2 +32%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $9 +$3 +36%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $13 +$2 +16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +58%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +70%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +76%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Bilibili Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$43 +209%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $34 −$2 -6%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$2 +28%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $11 −$5 -43%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$1 -60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$4 -35%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $6 +$3 +46%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $55 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $106 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $36 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $18 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $10 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 9h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $35 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $4 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $4 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $7 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Ghan BUY 19¢ $3 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $15 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 12h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 55¢ $2 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 58¢ $1 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $2 24h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 54¢ $2 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 18¢ $1 40h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $31 40h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $15 41h
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? BUY Yes 60¢ $7 41h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $5 45h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $437.08 · official $437.08 (match) · 506 history records