Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:42:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FD 0xfda7…08ef crypto 92 markets active 4d ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate72%61W / 24L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$1
politics 32% −$14
crypto 25% +$22
economics 8% +$1
tech 1% $0
sports 1% −$29
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 35 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 3% -4.4%
all 85 -13.0% -21.3% 72% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 5% -9.8%
10% -28.8% 2% -18.4%
15% -35.7% 1% -26.3%
20% -42.0% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses61 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)85 / 92
History coverage159d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on May 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 27? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 28? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 21? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 19? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 20? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? May 18 $21 +$22 +107%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 16? Apr 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 31? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 23-29? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 29? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on March 15? Mar 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 16? Mar 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on March 15? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 16? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 8? Mar 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 8? Mar 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 8? Mar 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 2-8? Mar 16 $13 $0 +0%
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Siena Saints Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Elon Phoenix vs. William & Mary Tribe Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
California Baptist Lancers vs. Southern Utah Thunderbirds Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Thunder Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Jazz vs. Bucks Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 08 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $12 4d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $22 4d
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? BUY No 100¢ $16 7d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $15 7d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $13 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $11 22d
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $11 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $11 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $23 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $12 64d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 75d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 75d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 75d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.02 · official $65.39 (match) · 238 history records