Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:35:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfda8…4543 other 41 markets active 4h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+12%) realized +$13 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$15
sports 30% +$14
culture 8% −$2
politics 7% +$1
crypto 4% +$1
world 3% −$4
finance 2% +$1
weather 2% −$2
economics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +82.2% +64.9% 100% 100% +52.2%
≤30d 35 -3.7% -12.9% 54% 54% +7.5%
≤90d 35 -3.7% -12.9% 54% 54% +7.5%
all 35 -3.7% -12.9% 54% 54% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 54% +7.5%
10% -21.2% 49% -2.8%
15% -28.8% 40% -12.2%
20% -35.8% 34% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 41
History coverage28d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 88¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+33%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $7 +$6 +84%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 +$5 +172%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? May 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $2 +$3 +123%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 3.5 May 29 $2 +$4 +172%
Spread: Shanghai Haigang FC (-1.5) May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Centurion: Edward Winter vs Robert Strombachs May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $3 +$2 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -0%
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Daria Khomutsianskaya May 28 $3 +$1 +24%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $6 +$3 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $3 +$3 +83%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 26 $3 +$3 +90%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 25 $5 +$2 +31%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 22? May 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? May 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 18m? May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Warsh say "Federal Reserve" 5+ times during swearing-in? May 22 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Warsh say "China" during swearing-in? May 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY Yes 10¢ $1 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $10 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 87¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $3 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 53¢ $7 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 18d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 18d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 18d
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 18d
Spread: Shanghai Haigang FC (-1.5) BUY Shanghai Haigang FC 15¢ $1 19d
Centurion: Edward Winter vs Robert Strombachs BUY Robert Strombachs 34¢ $2 19d
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2 19d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $2 19d
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 19d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $5 19d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL Yes $1 19d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes $1 19d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 66¢ $3 19d
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Minnesota Twins 45¢ $1 20d
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) BUY Thunder 26¢ $5 20d
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Daria Khomutsianskaya BUY Zongyu Li 80¢ $3 20d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 20d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.54 · official $16.54 (match) · 64 history records