Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:25:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdaa…58ad crypto 1353 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$243 (+2%) realized +$243 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%685W / 780L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day104.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days+$25
14 days+$56
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 255 -40.0% -45.7% 40% 33% -8.5%
≤30d 1465 -15.5% -23.5% 47% 36% -9.2%
≤90d 1465 -15.5% -23.5% 47% 36% -9.2%
all 1465 -15.5% -23.5% 47% 36% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 36% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 2% -17.9%
15% -37.5% 1% -25.9%
20% -43.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$243
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses685 / 780
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1465 / 1353
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day104.6
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1465 Trades
no open positions (253 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $0 −$1 -150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $0 −$1 -144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $16 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $7 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $22 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $24 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $17 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records