Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfdad…9d6b other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$542 (-27%) realized −$516 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$938now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$33
sports 46% −$547
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -9.3% -17.9% 33% 33% -63.5%
≤30d 4 -8.1% -16.8% 25% 25% -58.2%
≤90d 4 -8.1% -16.8% 25% 25% -58.2%
all 4 -8.1% -16.8% 25% 25% -58.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 25% -58.2%
10% -24.8% 25% -62.2%
15% -32.0% 25% -65.9%
20% -38.7% 25% -69.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$226 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$938
Realized−$516
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage7d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $569 $567 −$2 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $195 $173 −$22 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $103 −$7 -7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $670 −$665 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $154 +$122 +79%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $110 −$5 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $98 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $95 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $584 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $393 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $277 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $2 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $152 7d
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? SELL Yes 55¢ $105 7d
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 56¢ $110 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $938.42 · official $939.63 (match) · 13 history records