Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:05:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdae…6ad2 sports 914 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,489 (-10%) realized −$2,453 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%512W / 379L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$220est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,684now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$508
14 days−$443
30 days−$2,003
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$2,134
other 10% −$425
politics 0% +$8
world 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 231 -4.8% -13.8% 52% 51% -14.4%
≤30d 479 -6.4% -15.3% 56% 52% -19.5%
≤90d 891 -3.8% -12.9% 57% 55% -19.1%
all 891 -3.8% -12.9% 57% 55% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 55% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 52% -26.8%
15% -28.9% 44% -33.9%
20% -35.8% 30% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$25 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$1,684
Realized−$2,453
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses512 / 379
Est. fees paid−$220
Open positions23
Markets (closed)891 / 914
History coverage69d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 891 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 44¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 82¢ 81¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 78¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 55¢ 54¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 65¢ 100¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+54%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 75¢ 74¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 83¢ 82¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 61¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 48¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-39%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 18¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Over 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 27¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 77¢ 69¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 63¢ 52¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 53¢ 30¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 40¢ 19¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 30¢ 10¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 372 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 +$28 +140%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$21 +206%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 +$31 +31%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 +$17 +86%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $30 +$8 +27%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $30 +$15 +50%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 +$20 +197%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $30 +$13 +43%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $101 +$80 +79%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $101 +$46 +46%
Svitolina vs. Eala: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $40 −$40 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $34 −$33 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 +$9 +29%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $107 +$2 +2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $101 +$21 +21%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $50 +$12 +24%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$8 +42%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$7 +34%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$19 +93%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 +$24 +238%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$15 +31%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$14 +134%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$17 +34%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $30 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $50 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,003 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $10 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $10 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $10 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $10 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $10 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $20 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $38 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $45 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $50 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 3h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 3h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $10 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $20 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,684.06 · official $1,684.08 (match) · 1649 history records