Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:22:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FD 0xfdae…39eb sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,262 (-12%) realized −$5,262 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%40W / 25L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$687per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$560est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$31
14 days−$6,608
30 days−$5,195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5,195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.1% -8.5% 69% 69% -9.8%
≤30d 65 -8.7% -17.4% 62% 54% -20.1%
≤90d 65 -8.7% -17.4% 62% 54% -20.1%
all 65 -8.7% -17.4% 62% 54% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 54% -20.1%
10% -25.3% 45% -27.7%
15% -32.5% 37% -34.7%
20% -39.2% 22% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,003) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$319 vs −$718 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,262
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses40 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$560
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage17d
Avg bet$687
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $1,705 −$1,705 -100%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $994 +$361 +36%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $1,132 +$208 +18%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $22 +$8 +36%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $1,012 +$653 +64%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $1,003 +$119 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $858 +$1,252 +146%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $119 −$118 -99%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $552 −$550 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $494 +$177 +36%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $395 +$154 +39%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $406 −$401 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $699 +$102 +15%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $534 +$165 +31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $289 +$244 +84%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $713 −$700 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $172 −$169 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Hanyu Guo vs Maddison Inglis Jun 07 $145 +$27 +19%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $224 +$171 +76%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $511 −$500 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Hanyu Guo Jun 07 $483 +$126 +26%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $400 +$113 +28%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $605 −$600 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $507 +$453 +89%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 07 $336 +$313 +93%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Talia Gibson vs Alina Charaeva Jun 07 $298 +$38 +13%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 07 $449 −$150 -34%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $182 +$169 +93%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,021 −$1,021 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $873 −$873 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $228 −$228 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $74 −$74 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $155 +$125 +81%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $99 +$55 +56%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $1,526 −$1,526 -100%
Makarska: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 06 $211 +$18 +8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $1,527 −$1,527 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $950 −$950 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,388 −$1,388 -100%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 06 $18 +$4 +24%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,011 +$572 +56%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $1,004 +$87 +9%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $1,004 +$157 +16%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Vit Kopriva Jun 05 $552 −$552 -100%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran Jun 05 $566 −$566 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $408 −$408 -100%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 05 $496 −$496 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1,895 +$2,834 +150%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling Jun 05 $1,092 +$398 +36%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Marvin Moeller Jun 05 $991 +$94 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 99¢ $1,355 1h
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova SELL Katerina Siniakova 100¢ $1,340 1h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 72¢ $994 2h
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Katerina Siniakova 84¢ $1,132 2h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets SELL Katie Volynets 99¢ $30 3h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 72¢ $22 3h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 90¢ $1,705 4h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys SELL Eva Lys 100¢ $1,665 4h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Daniel Galan 100¢ $1,122 4h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 60¢ $1,012 5h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 89¢ $1,003 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $2,110 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $474 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 45¢ $384 21h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 64¢ $119 22h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 85¢ $552 23h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $671 23h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 73¢ $494 24h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $550 24h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 71¢ $395 26h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 59¢ $406 26h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za SELL Renata Zarazua 99¢ $801 26h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Renata Zarazua 86¢ $699 27h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha SELL Shuai Zhang 99¢ $699 27h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha BUY Shuai Zhang 75¢ $534 28h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $533 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $289 45h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 36¢ $713 46h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 50¢ $172 8d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Hanyu Guo vs Maddison Inglis SELL Maddison Inglis 99¢ $172 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records