Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:25:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdaf…0846 crypto 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$59 (+4%) realized +$120 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%47W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day92.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +4.5% -5.5% 58% 58% -17.7%
≤30d 81 +4.5% -5.5% 58% 58% -17.7%
≤90d 81 +4.5% -5.5% 58% 58% -17.7%
all 81 +4.5% -5.5% 58% 58% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 58% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 58% -25.6%
15% -22.8% 58% -32.8%
20% -30.4% 58% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$18 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$120
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses47 / 34
Open positions3
Markets (closed)81 / 84
History coverage2d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day92.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 52¢ 39¢ $31 $23 −$8 (-25%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET Up 54¢ 18¢ $33 $10 −$22 (-68%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 54¢ 2¢ $32 $1 −$32 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +67%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $37 +$23 +63%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +65%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +88%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +67%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +67%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +67%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +67%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +67%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $34 −$33 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +67%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $34 −$33 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$29 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$25 +69%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$31 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$29 +96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$24 +67%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $34 −$32 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $24 +$16 +67%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $37 +$23 +64%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$35 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +101%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +101%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$4 +67%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +86%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$4 +73%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$4 +72%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +91%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +83%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$4 +67%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$4 +70%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$4 +72%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$4 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $33 10m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 25m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 25m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $34 25m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 25m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $19 25m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 25m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $25 25m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 40m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 40m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $29 40m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $36 55m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $32 55m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $19 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $32 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $19 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $19 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $36 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.80 · official $59.70 · 190 history records