Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdb5…ff1e crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 418d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$169 (-52%) realized −$164 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 418d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$169
crypto 45% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-99.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 12 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 12 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 13 -99.5% -99.6% 0% 0% -96.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -99.6% 0% -96.4%
10% -99.6% 0% -96.7%
15% -99.6% 0% -97.0%
20% -99.7% 0% -97.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -99% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$21 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

418d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$164
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage418d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 29 $180 −$169 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 2h
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 417d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? BUY Yes 23¢ $166 418d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 418d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 32 history records