Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:18:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfdb6…f256 sports 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,336 (+18%) realized +$1,333 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%38W / 55L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$299
7 days+$338
14 days+$764
30 days+$835
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$1,020
other 9% +$40
crypto 6% +$178
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -3.2% -12.4% 38% 36% +6.0%
≤30d 89 +3.4% -6.5% 39% 38% +3.4%
≤90d 93 +4.4% -5.5% 41% 39% +7.3%
all 93 +4.4% -5.5% 41% 39% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 39% +7.3%
10% -14.6% 39% -3.0%
15% -22.8% 37% -12.4%
20% -30.4% 35% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$45 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized+$1,333
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses38 / 55
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions4
Markets (closed)93 / 97
History coverage32d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 45¢ 51¢ $115 $129 +$15 (+13%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Team Falcons 58¢ 55¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Team Falcons 62¢ 50¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-19%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 54¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $101 +$25 +25%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 20 $51 −$5 -10%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 20 $51 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $88 +$199 +226%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $51 $0 -1%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $31 −$8 -26%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $61 +$93 +152%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $51 +$49 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $284 −$1 -0%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 +$36 +70%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $50 +$14 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $51 +$65 +127%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $61 −$39 -64%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $10 −$6 -59%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$25 -49%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$44 -87%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$21 +200%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$60 +119%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$56 +109%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$49 +474%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $71 +$41 +58%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +91%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$17 +57%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $102 +$126 +124%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$22 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $140 −$20 -14%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$232 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 43¢ $106 19m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 50¢ $45 37m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 53m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 40¢ $102 54m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 54¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $51 1h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $51 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $51 1h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) SELL Aurora Gaming 55¢ $36 4h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) SELL Aurora Gaming 64¢ $51 4h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) SELL Aurora Gaming 62¢ $10 4h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 71¢ $1 4h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 71¢ $23 4h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 71¢ $7 4h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 71¢ $10 4h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $48 5h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 5h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $51 5h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $51 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $109 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $20 20h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 50¢ $48 20h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 50¢ $2 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 43¢ $23 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 9¢ $10 21h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $31 21h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 10¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 57¢ $17 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 57¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.65 · official $217.39 (match) · 192 history records