Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:32:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FD 0xfdb8…af02 sports 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$515 (-1%) realized −$418 · open −$97
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate47%67W / 77L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$337per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$4,476now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,294
14 days−$2,291
30 days−$2,234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$1,367
other 41% −$4,071
world 15% +$2,196
crypto 1% −$18
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -60.5% -64.3% 33% 33% -85.7%
≤30d 16 -15.0% -23.1% 81% 12% -63.9%
≤90d 26 -22.8% -30.2% 69% 19% -61.9%
all 144 -8.2% -17.0% 47% 35% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 35% -10.6%
10% -24.9% 31% -19.2%
15% -32.2% 23% -27.0%
20% -38.8% 18% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$258 vs −$230 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$4,476
Realized−$418
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses67 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions7
Markets (closed)144 / 151
History coverage588d
Avg bet$337
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 83¢ 78¢ $2,000 $1,888 −$112 (-6%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $1,045 $1,037 −$8 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $944 $1,009 +$65 (+7%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 34¢ 31¢ $500 $454 −$46 (-9%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $54 $59 +$5 (+9%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-12%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 89¢ 96¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $377 −$369 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $365 +$67 +18%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2,000 −$1,992 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada Jun 05 $8 +$2 +26%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 05 $10 $0 +3%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 25 $896 +$62 +7%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 23 $6 $0 +1%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 23 $7 $0 +1%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 23 $8 $0 +2%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on May 6? May 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-02? May 06 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 06 $11 +$9 +79%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? Apr 30 $12 −$12 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-03? Apr 30 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $11 −$10 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Suns vs. Pacers Mar 24 $12 +$3 +28%
Wild vs. Avalanche Mar 09 $67 +$39 +59%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-03-08? Mar 09 $177 +$59 +34%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-03-08? Mar 09 $80 +$420 +525%
Knicks vs. Lakers Mar 08 $462 −$462 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Feb 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Feb 19 $20 $0 +0%
Nets vs. Grizzlies Jan 31 $18 +$2 +14%
Pelicans vs. Magic Jan 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Jazz vs. Warriors Jan 11 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 01 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 2? Dec 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iceland win on 2025-10-10? Oct 11 $293 +$138 +47%
Will Croatia win on 2025-10-09? Oct 10 $167 +$126 +75%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-05? Oct 09 $102 +$65 +64%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? Sep 17 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? Sep 12 $104 +$47 +45%
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 Aug 12 $10 +$3 +28%
Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 60? Jul 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $20m? Jul 07 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 31¢ $133 1h
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 35¢ $377 7h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 24h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $1,055 27h
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $200 28h
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $200 28h
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $200 28h
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $400 28h
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,000 28h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 11¢ $56 30h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $377 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $2,000 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $365 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $7 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $944 24d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland BUY Finland 50¢ $5 24d
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada BUY Canada 79¢ $8 24d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Usyk 94¢ $283 25d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Usyk 93¢ $561 25d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Usyk 94¢ $52 25d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 34d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 34d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? BUY No 99¢ $10 34d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 89¢ $10 34d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $10 34d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 34d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 34d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 34d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 34d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,476.21 · official $4,476.74 (match) · 307 history records