Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:38:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdbc…d03a crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (140 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$382 (-19%) realized −$382 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -85% what you keep after slip
Net edge-85%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%3W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day140.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,910now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$382
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (140 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-82.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -80.6% -82.4% 12% 12% -53.0%
≤30d 24 -80.6% -82.4% 12% 12% -53.0%
≤90d 24 -80.6% -82.4% 12% 12% -53.0%
all 24 -80.6% -82.4% 12% 12% -53.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover140.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -82.4% 12% -53.0%
10% ← realistic here -84.1% 8% -57.5%
15% -85.6% 4% -61.6%
20% -87.0% 4% -65.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -81% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -85% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$21 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,910
Realized−$382
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses3 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day140.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $12 +$8 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $129 +$29 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $65 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $57 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $279 −$27 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $74 −$23 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $139 −$25 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $147 −$9 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $70 −$13 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $81 −$9 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $223 −$22 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $114 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $120 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$14 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $70 −$60 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $19 −$10 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $28 −$17 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $162 +$19 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $84 −$29 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $13 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $14 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $0 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,910.12 · official $1,910.12 (match) · 141 history records