Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdbe…b6d8 sports 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,924 (-19%) realized −$3,789 · open −$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%58W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$278est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$279
7 days−$316
14 days−$548
30 days−$8,086
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$3,209
politics 13% −$943
crypto 2% −$145
other 0% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -60.1% -63.9% 20% 20% -72.4%
≤30d 127 -75.9% -78.2% 12% 11% -65.6%
≤90d 168 -26.0% -33.1% 33% 32% -29.9%
all 171 -24.2% -31.5% 34% 33% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 33% -28.5%
10% -38.0% 32% -35.3%
15% -44.0% 29% -41.5%
20% -49.5% 23% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -75% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$92 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,789
Unrealized−$135
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses58 / 113
Est. fees paid−$278
Open positions2
Markets (closed)171 / 174
History coverage104d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner LGD Gaming 30¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $70 +$69 +100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $264 −$150 -57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $83 −$81 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $120 −$118 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $37 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $55 −$54 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $64 −$62 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $82 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $139 +$95 +68%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $65 −$64 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 10 $22 −$21 -98%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $41 −$18 -44%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $65 −$65 -100%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $70 +$155 +223%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - CCT Eur May 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 25 $106 −$1 -1%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europ May 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner May 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch S May 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics - Map 3 Winner May 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner May 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 May 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Metizport (BO3) - European Pro League Serie May 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 Winner May 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner May 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage May 25 $112 +$18 +16%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Eastern Euro May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 25 $182 +$49 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A May 25 $56 +$24 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner May 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 25 $81 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 25 $86 −$86 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner May 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A May 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 30¢ $100 42m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 18¢ $39 1h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea SELL 9z Team 99¢ $139 1h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY 9z Team 49¢ $70 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland v BUY 36¢ $69 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 34¢ $153 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 68¢ $153 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $111 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 21¢ $83 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 41¢ $120 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $37 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 17¢ $55 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 17¢ $64 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $82 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 99¢ $145 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 59¢ $88 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL B8 40¢ $88 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 22¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 39¢ $65 7d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY Ursa 34¢ $100 8d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY Masked Regime 9¢ $15 8d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY Masked Regime 24¢ $6 8d
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria SELL Segundo Goity Zapico 9¢ $23 8d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 40¢ $65 8d
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria BUY Segundo Goity Zapico 15¢ $41 9d
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 12¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.27 · official $0.27 (match) · 431 history records