Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FD 0xfdbf…8c06 crypto 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,068 (+40%) realized +$1,073 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%57W / 54L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$258
7 days+$332
14 days+$332
30 days+$323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$650
sports 7% +$306
world 1% −$5
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +25.4% +13.5% 58% 58% +52.0%
≤30d 33 +17.8% +6.6% 55% 55% +49.2%
≤90d 111 +11.1% +0.5% 51% 50% +23.9%
all 111 +11.1% +0.5% 51% 50% +23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 50% +23.9%
10% -9.1% 50% +12.1%
15% -17.9% 47% +1.2%
20% -25.9% 44% -8.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$20 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$1,073
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses57 / 54
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage37d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $67 +$240 +360%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$34 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$32 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$9 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$8 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $18 −$17 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $21 −$5 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 14 $10 +$9 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 14 $13 −$12 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 14 $10 +$7 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 12 $5 +$5 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 12 $10 +$9 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 12 $10 +$6 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $306 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $20 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $10 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $15 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $20 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $30 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.00 · official $25.00 (match) · 251 history records