Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdc0…4b3d crypto 42 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+2%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day36.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$30
other 8% +$1
sports 4% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +6.3% -3.8% 50% 40% -18.1%
≤30d 42 +6.3% -3.8% 50% 40% -18.1%
≤90d 42 +6.3% -3.8% 50% 40% -18.1%
all 42 +6.3% -3.8% 50% 40% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 40% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 33% -25.9%
15% -21.4% 31% -33.1%
20% -29.1% 24% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage2d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day36.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.15 on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $22 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$5 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$26 +1227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 25¢ $11 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? SELL No 88¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records