Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FD 0xfdc6…788a sports 203 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$561 (+11%) realized +$458 · open +$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%96W / 102L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days+$128
14 days+$26
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$202
other 49% +$495
crypto 1% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.7% -11.1% 45% 45% +6.7%
≤30d 34 -12.9% -21.2% 41% 41% -7.3%
≤90d 142 -19.3% -26.9% 41% 40% -13.0%
all 198 -3.6% -12.8% 48% 48% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 48% +0.5%
10% -21.1% 48% -9.1%
15% -28.7% 47% -17.9%
20% -35.7% 39% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$19 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized+$458
Unrealized+$103
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses96 / 102
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions4
Markets (closed)198 / 203
History coverage141d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 100¢ $100 $149 +$49 (+49%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 24¢ 100¢ $20 $83 +$63 (+313%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 43¢ 28¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-36%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $19 −$19 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $30 −$29 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $42 −$42 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$32 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$8 +32%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$18 +70%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $26 +$44 +165%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$138 +46%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $12 +$51 +414%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $31 +$38 +124%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $6 −$6 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $51 +$60 +119%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $11 −$11 -99%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 23 $15 +$6 +42%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $10 −$10 -99%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 May 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $14 +$12 +83%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 May 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 15 $7 +$4 +62%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 12 $5 +$9 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $20 23h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $20 23h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $19 25h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $30 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $42 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $61 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 4d
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $10 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $9 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $26 6d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $12 7d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $20 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $36 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 9d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 10d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252.75 · official $252.75 (match) · 347 history records