Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FD 0xfdc6…b20d sports 982 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,444 (+4%) realized +$1,557 · open −$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%451W / 520L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Fees−$518est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$250
7 days−$513
14 days−$48
30 days−$581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$431
other 1% +$37
politics 1% −$103
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -3.9% -13.0% 41% 41% -26.1%
≤30d 380 -3.4% -12.6% 46% 46% -13.4%
≤90d 971 -1.9% -11.2% 46% 46% -10.5%
all 971 -1.9% -11.2% 46% 46% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 46% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 46% -19.0%
15% -27.5% 46% -26.9%
20% -34.6% 44% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$32 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$526
Realized+$1,557
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses451 / 520
Est. fees paid−$518
Open positions15
Markets (closed)971 / 982
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 971 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ 94¢ $132 $187 +$55 (+42%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $183 $112 −$72 (-39%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 55¢ $102 $109 +$7 (+7%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 43¢ 16¢ $107 $39 −$68 (-64%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 50¢ 82¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-48%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+73%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-54%)
Will Donald Trump visit Pennsylvania in 2026? Yes 76¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+30%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+37%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $4 −$14 (-80%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Yes 57¢ 3¢ $17 $1 −$16 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 323 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 20 $7 +$13 +186%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $31 −$31 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $60 +$50 +83%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $59 +$41 +70%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $4 +$6 +180%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $28 +$32 +113%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $19 +$31 +163%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $129 −$128 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $112 −$112 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 18 $8 +$12 +156%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $114 +$84 +74%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 18 $11 +$29 +257%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $22 +$28 +127%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $123 −$122 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 18 $3 +$5 +156%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $60 +$60 +101%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Jun 18 $1 +$4 +317%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $5 +$8 +156%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $2 +$4 +212%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 17 $5 +$5 +100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $12 +$18 +146%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $49 +$51 +105%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $50 +$50 +100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $62 +$65 +105%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $15 +$25 +158%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $17 +$13 +73%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $29 −$28 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $99 +$101 +101%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $28 +$22 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $28 +$22 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $11 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 35¢ $27 31m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 35¢ $3 31m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 35¢ $4 31m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 35¢ $1 31m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 35¢ $1 43m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 40¢ $0 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 40¢ $2 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 40¢ $1 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 40¢ $16 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 40¢ $1 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 40¢ $1 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ $2 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ $2 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 46¢ $18 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 19¢ $2 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 50¢ $10 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $133 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $53 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 29¢ $6 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 28¢ $2 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 28¢ $2 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 22¢ $11 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 49¢ $49 3h
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) BUY New York Yankees 35¢ $0 4h
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) BUY New York Yankees 35¢ $3 4h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 4h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $29 4h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 4h
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) BUY New York Yankees 35¢ $4 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 35¢ $35 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $525.95 · official $540.95 · 3500 history records