Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdcc…7d04 crypto 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$216 · open −$210
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate95%78W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day44.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -1.9% -11.3% 95% 4% -9.0%
≤30d 82 -1.8% -11.1% 95% 4% -9.0%
≤90d 82 -1.8% -11.1% 95% 4% -9.0%
all 82 -1.8% -11.1% 95% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 4% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 1% -17.7%
15% -27.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$28 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized+$216
Unrealized−$210
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses78 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage8d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day44.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 99¢ 44¢ $381 $171 −$210 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 27 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $351 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $351 +$20 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $351 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $350 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$41 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $381 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $298 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $141 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $121 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $63 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $81 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $161 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $342 +$22 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $261 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $61 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $221 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $333 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $266 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $331 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $85 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $350 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $351 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.26 · official $171.26 (match) · 482 history records