Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FD 0xfdce…157d sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$19
14 days+$22
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$19
crypto 7% −$26
other 3% +$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +39.1% +25.9% 100% 100% +21.7%
≤30d 16 +22.4% +10.7% 69% 62% +9.2%
≤90d 29 -2.6% -11.8% 55% 52% -10.8%
all 29 -2.6% -11.8% 55% 52% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 52% -10.8%
10% -20.3% 41% -19.3%
15% -28.0% 31% -27.1%
20% -35.0% 21% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage38d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 +$12 +57%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $34 +$7 +21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 +$5 +26%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 10 $5 +$2 +34%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $31 −$3 -10%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $15 −$15 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $5 +$5 +101%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $30 +$15 +50%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $10 −$1 -5%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 02 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 31 $5 $0 +4%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $10 +$14 +140%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $5 +$3 +65%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $9 +$5 +60%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $5 +$1 +29%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $5 +$2 +37%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 19 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $55 +$9 +17%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1 $0 -48%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 14 $5 −$2 -48%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 14 $1 $0 +16%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 13 $6 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 63¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 82¢ $34 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 79¢ $20 7d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 74¢ $5 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL Team Yandex 89¢ $28 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 99¢ $31 11d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 68¢ $15 11d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 52¢ $5 12d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 49¢ $5 12d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 72¢ $15 13d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 61¢ $15 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 18d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 52¢ $10 18d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $10 18d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif BUY Aurora 41¢ $10 19d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY PARIVISION 60¢ $5 26d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Spirit 62¢ $9 28d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Tundra Esports 77¢ $5 29d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs SELL Team Falcons 94¢ $7 30d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $5 30d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B BUY Tundra Esports 62¢ $4 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.65 · official $49.65 (match) · 64 history records