Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfdd2…0abf sports 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,002 (+13%) realized +$4,100 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%24W / 29L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$562per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$364est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$913now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$947
7 days+$4,744
14 days+$4,780
30 days+$3,794
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$2,330
other 31% +$1,365
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +26.2% +14.2% 55% 55% +18.7%
≤30d 53 +5.7% -4.4% 45% 45% +2.1%
≤90d 53 +5.7% -4.4% 45% 45% +2.1%
all 53 +5.7% -4.4% 45% 45% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 45% +2.1%
10% -13.5% 43% -7.7%
15% -21.9% 43% -16.6%
20% -29.6% 43% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$700) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$772 vs −$508 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$913
Realized+$4,100
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses24 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$364
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage18d
Avg bet$562
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal leading at halftime? No 44¢ 42¢ $811 $765 −$46 (-6%)
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) KRÜ Blaze 23¢ 17¢ $200 $148 −$52 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $204 +$334 +164%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $305 +$37 +12%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $203 +$205 +101%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $1,508 −$1,485 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $306 −$300 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 16 $1,083 +$1,139 +105%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 15 $194 +$388 +200%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $433 +$630 +146%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $510 −$500 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $2,653 +$3,019 +114%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $307 −$300 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $1,522 −$1,500 -98%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $204 +$421 +206%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 12 $389 +$621 +160%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $2,440 +$3,009 +123%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 11 $509 +$655 +129%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $710 −$700 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $704 −$700 -99%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Jun 10 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $407 +$473 +116%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $307 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 10 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 08 $320 +$527 +165%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $820 +$1,099 +134%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 9z (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) Jun 08 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $508 +$513 +101%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 07 $254 +$227 +90%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs GamerLegion (+3.5) Jun 07 $194 −$190 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs FlyQuest (+3.5) Jun 07 $204 −$200 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 07 $509 −$500 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $500 −$490 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? Jun 06 $835 −$822 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? Jun 05 $917 −$900 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 05 $916 −$900 -98%
Valorant: BOOM Esports vs Sharper Esport (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: P Jun 05 $214 +$208 +97%
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1? Jun 05 $1,218 +$1,231 +101%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier Jun 05 $204 −$200 -98%
Map Handicap: BCA (-1.5) vs ASTRAL (+1.5) Jun 04 $204 +$459 +225%
Map Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (+1.5) Jun 04 $609 −$600 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $511 +$1,275 +250%
Spread: Valencia (-11.5) Jun 03 $549 −$541 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $358 −$350 -98%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $405 +$321 +79%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $507 −$500 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $307 −$300 -98%
Map Handicap: OX (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 01 $255 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Galorys - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $255 +$386 +152%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? May 31 $760 +$866 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL SPARTA 100¢ $538 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group SELL CHAOS 50¢ $342 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $408 3h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 43¢ $305 4h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $825 8h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $203 11h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $821 12h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY KRÜ Blaze 23¢ $205 12h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 37¢ $204 14h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $686 15h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $306 24h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 48¢ $1,083 39h
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) BUY Solary 46¢ $305 2d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $194 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $433 2d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) BUY FUT Esports 32¢ $204 3d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 32¢ $510 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $5,672 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 47¢ $867 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $871 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 46¢ $915 4d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $307 4d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 50¢ $1,522 4d
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B BUY MASQ 32¢ $204 5d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY FUT Esports 39¢ $277 5d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $112 5d
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? SELL Under 100¢ $339 5d
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? SELL Under 100¢ $625 5d
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? SELL Under 100¢ $489 5d
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? SELL Under 100¢ $435 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $912.75 · official $917.09 (match) · 96 history records