Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdd4…6a8f world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$1
politics 23% $0
other 23% $0
economics 11% +$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.7% -12.0% 0% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 11 +2.1% -7.6% 27% 18% -9.6%
≤90d 11 +2.1% -7.6% 27% 18% -9.6%
all 35 +0.5% -9.1% 37% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 9% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage330d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $39 −$3 -8%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $67 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $141 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $16 +$3 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $62 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $3 $0 +13%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will Jim Walden win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? Aug 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 10 $39 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 10 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 03 $4 $0 -1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 03 $4 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Aug 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 30 $2 $0 -26%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $38 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in July? Jul 29 $3 $0 +18%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 29 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $35 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 45¢ $36 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $39 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $39 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $39 38h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $5 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $34 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $39 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 100¢ $25 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 100¢ $6 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 99¢ $31 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $1 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $32 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $33 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $35 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $35 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.10 · official $35.10 (match) · 110 history records