Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfdd6…22b0 other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$100 (+0%) realized +$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate22%14W / 51L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 71% −$15
other 16% +$31
politics 9% −$5
sports 3% +$87
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -7.8% -16.6% 8% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 52 +7.7% -2.6% 23% 17% -7.7%
all 65 +6.0% -4.1% 22% 14% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 14% -9.1%
10% -13.3% 14% -17.8%
15% -21.6% 12% -25.7%
20% -29.3% 12% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$2 · ×6.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses14 / 51
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage610d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $73 $73 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $207 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $185 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 05 $75 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $384 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $36 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 18 $182 $0 -0%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $173 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers May 12 $13 +$15 +124%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $162 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 08 $173 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $170 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $178 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $179 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $165 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $345 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $346 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 25 $348 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $176 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $166 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $177 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $174 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $166 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $175 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $171 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $165 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 13 $8 +$8 +89%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 13 $14 +$11 +79%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $20 +$23 +114%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $12 +$4 +29%
Kraken vs. Panthers Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 03 $40 $0 +0%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 03 $24 +$36 +150%
Heat vs. Pacers Mar 31 $22 +$79 +354%
Knicks vs. Hornets Mar 27 $17 +$16 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 3h
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $73 6h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 4d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 4d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $76 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 13d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 14d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $24 22d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $24 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $42 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $42 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 27d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 27d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $30 28d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 28d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 60¢ $12 29d
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $75 29d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 29d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 29d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $182 31d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $182 31d
Wild vs. Avalanche BUY Wild 35¢ $4 37d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $173 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.90 · official $148.90 (match) · 287 history records