Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:28:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfdd9…8ee2
crypto · 105 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$85 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$107 · open +$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses60 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage72d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 103 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$110
7 days−$92
14 days−$92
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Up 0¢ 46¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$37 +383%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $47 +$1 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $35 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$17 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$18 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 13 $51 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $38 +$38 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$13 +57%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $18 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$11 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $17 +$28 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 21 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 21 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 21 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 20 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 20 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 20 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 20 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 20 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 86% −$124
sports 13% −$2
other 2% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 47m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $15 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $47 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 20¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $8 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $48 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $47 21h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $47 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $17 22h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $47 23h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 74¢ $35 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $17 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -3.7% -12.9% 54% 44% -20.4%
≤30d 81 +0.5% -9.1% 62% 49% -16.7%
≤90d 103 +3.0% -6.8% 58% 48% -16.8%
all 103 +3.0% -6.8% 58% 48% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 48% -16.8%
10% -15.8% 36% -24.7%
15% -23.9% 28% -32.0%
20% -31.4% 19% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.84 · official $23.84 · 360 history records