Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfddd…cab9
crypto · 735 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$724 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$169 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$133
Realized+$169
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses495 / 269
Open positions1
Markets (closed)764 / 735
History coverage20d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day144.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 764 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$434
7 days+$394
14 days+$49
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 69¢ 66¢ $139 $133 −$6 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $88 $0 −$88 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16? No 86¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16? No 93¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C or higher on May 22? No 92¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 18? No 71¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 26? No 74¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 22? No 86¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on May 26? No 71¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on May 21? No 77¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C or higher on May 22? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 18? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 22? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on May 21? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 17? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 48°C or higher on May 18? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 22? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on May 23? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 16? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 22? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 23? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 17? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 23? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 21? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 17? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 24? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 23? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 22? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 23? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 24? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $167 +$33 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $166 +$34 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $158 −$156 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $157 +$43 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $178 +$22 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $181 +$19 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $176 +$24 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $159 +$41 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $180 +$20 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $176 +$24 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $109 −$106 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $165 +$35 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $167 +$33 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $176 +$24 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $138 +$62 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $116 −$75 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 95% +$382
weather 5% +$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $142 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $22 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $141 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $53 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $11 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $0 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 437 -20.7% -28.3% 54% 35% -8.1%
≤30d 764 -11.2% -19.6% 65% 42% -9.2%
≤90d 764 -11.2% -19.6% 65% 42% -9.2%
all 764 -11.2% -19.6% 65% 42% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover144.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 42% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 17% -17.9%
15% -34.3% 10% -25.8%
20% -40.8% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.00 · official $133.00 (match) · 3500 history records