Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdde…abcf other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%6W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$234
sports 22% −$334
world 8% −$602
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -35.7% -41.8% 18% 18% -24.0%
≤30d 33 -35.7% -41.8% 18% 18% -24.0%
≤90d 33 -35.7% -41.8% 18% 18% -24.0%
all 33 -35.7% -41.8% 18% 18% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.8% 18% -24.0%
10% ← realistic here -47.4% 18% -31.3%
15% -52.5% 18% -37.9%
20% -57.1% 15% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$687 vs −$196 · ×3.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses6 / 27
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage6d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $215 −$215 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $241 −$241 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $338 −$338 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $236 −$236 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $582 +$1,384 +238%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 +$47 +46%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $654 −$654 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $174 −$50 -29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$19 -94%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $277 −$181 -65%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $72 −$71 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $356 +$393 +110%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $126 −$126 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $420 −$420 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $86 +$408 +474%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $413 +$1,686 +409%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $34 −$31 -93%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $38 −$35 -91%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $217 −$217 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $361 −$361 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $815 −$815 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $217 −$182 -84%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $200 +$200 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $72 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 33¢ $133 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $72 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $72 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $61 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 23¢ $92 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 24¢ $92 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $61 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $1,966 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $72 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $122 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $132 27h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $85 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 179 history records